[1]张娟,朱文强,王凯,等.基于Logistic的山区连续长下坡路段交通事故严重程度分析[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2017,49(06):841-845.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2017.06.011]
　ZHANG Juan,ZHU Wenqiang,WANG Kai,et al.Analysis on traffic accident severity of continuous long downgrade section in the mountainous area based on Logistic[J].J. Xi’an Univ. of Arch. & Tech.(Natural Science Edition),2017,49(06):841-845.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2017.06.011]
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基于Logistic的山区连续长下坡路段交通事故严重程度分析()
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西安建筑科技大学学报（自然科学版）[ISSN:1006-7930/CN:61-1295/TU]

卷:
49
期数:
2017年06期
页码:
841-845
栏目:
出版日期:
2017-12-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis on traffic accident severity of continuous long downgrade section in the mountainous area based on Logistic
文章编号:
1006-7930(2017)06-0841-06
作者:
张娟; 朱文强; 王凯; 陶珂
（西安建筑科技大学 土木工程学院， 陕西 西安 710055）
Author(s):
ZHANG Juan;  ZHU Wenqiang;  WANG Kai;  TAO Ke
(School of Civil Engineering, Xi′an Univ. of Arch. & Tech., Xi′ an 710055, China)
关键词:
交通工程; 山区连续长下坡路段; Logistic模型; 事故严重程度
Keywords:
traffic engineering;  continuous long downgrade section of mountainous area;  logistic model;  accidentseverity
分类号:
U491
DOI:
10.15986/j.1006-7930.2017.06.011
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为研究山区连续长下坡路段交通事故影响因素，以事故严重程度为因变量，从人、车、路、环境4个方面归纳出天气状况、车辆类型、平面线形等11个因素对事故严重程度的影响，应用分类变量方法将其定义为11种指标，并进行变量编码. 以陕西省2条山区连续长下坡路段三年共计169起交通事故为建模数据，结合Logistic回归理论，建立了各因素对山区连续长下坡路段交通事故严重程度的影响度量模型. 结果表明：坡度和事故地点是影响山区连续长下坡路段交通事故严重程度的主要因素，其中，非特殊路段发生事故伤亡的概率较小，其发生伤亡的概率是特殊路段的32.4%.发生伤亡事故的概率随坡度增加呈递增趋势.
Abstract:
In order to study the influence factors of traffic accidents on continuous long downgrade section in mountainous area, taking the accident severity as dependent variable, the influence of 11 factors including weather condition, vehicle type, road alignment and so on were induced from the human factors, vehicle, road, and environment concerned. These 11 indexes were then coded with own grade section in mountainous area in Shaanxi province were used for building the measurement model of traffic accident severity, which influenced by various factors at continuous long downgrade section in mountainous area based on logistic model theory. The results show that the accident position and slope are the important factors to affect the accident severity at the continuous long downgrade section in mountainous area. At the unrepresentative section, there is a low probability of injury and death, accounting for 32.4% of that at the representative section. The probability of occurrence of casualty accidents increases as the slope increases.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2016-11-03 修改稿日期:2017-11-03 基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(51308449)；陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目(2013JK0955) 第一作者:张娟(1978-)，女，博士，讲师，主要从事道路交通安全方面研究. E-mail: sayibing@126.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-02-11