[1]孙 健,陈书恺,竺寒冰.基于神经网络的交通发生量预测研究?[J].西安建筑科技大学学报:自然科学版,2015,47(02):204-0209.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2015.02.010]
　SUN Jian,CHEN Shukai,ZHU Hanbing.Research on trip generation forecasting based on BP neural network[J].J.Xi’an Univ. of Arch. & Tech.:Natural Science Edition,2015,47(02):204-0209.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2015.02.010]
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基于神经网络的交通发生量预测研究?()
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西安建筑科技大学学报:自然科学版[ISSN:1006-7930/CN:61-1295/TU]

卷:
47
期数:
2015年02期
页码:
204-0209
栏目:
出版日期:
2015-04-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on trip generation forecasting based on BP neural network
文章编号:
1006-7930(2015)02-0204-06
作者:
孙 健1; 2; 陈书恺1; 2; 竺寒冰3
（1. 上海交通大学船舶海洋与建筑工程学院， 海洋工程国家重点实验室，上海200240；
2. 上海交通大学船舶海洋与建筑工程学院，上海 200240， 3. 大连海事大学交通运输管理学院，辽宁 大连 116026）
Author(s):
SUN Jian1; 2;  CHEN Shukai1; 2;  ZHU Hanbing3
(1. State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao
Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China;
2. School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China,
3. College of Transportation Management, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China)
关键词:
预测方法; BP 神经网络; 交通发生量; 聚类分析; 主成分分析
Keywords:
forecast method;  BP neural network;  trip generation;  cluster analysis;  principal component analysis
分类号:
U491.1
DOI:
10.15986/j.1006-7930.2015.02.010
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
交通发生吸引量预测是交通规划四阶段的首要步骤，其预测结果是城市规划布局及交通设施建设发展的重要依据．为
了提高交通发生量预测准确性，利用K-means 聚类分析对交通小区进行分组；对同组内样本小区各项土地利用及人口就业
指标进行主成分分析，通过计算主成分载荷率为选择预测影响因素提供依据；针对各组样本分别建立BP 神经网络模型，以
土地利用和人口数据作为输入变量，小区交通发生量作为输出变量，以大连市城市交通调查数据为例对上述方法进行检验，
并与传统回归模型预测结果进行比较．结果表明，在数据预处理基础上建立的BP 神经网络模型具有较高预测精度．
Abstract:
Forecasting trip generation and attraction is the first component of the four-stage method in transportation planning,
which determines the urban layout and construction of traffic facilities. To improve the accuracy of trip generation forecasting,
K-means cluster analysis was used to divide traffic zones into several groups according to the population and employment. Principal
component analysis was conducted to calculate the loading rate to principal components, providing the basis for choosing the
influence factor. Finally, BP (Back Propagation) neural networks were set up to forecast trip generation; the input included land-use
and population of each traffic zone; and the output was the trip generation. The methods were testified with the traffic survey data
from city of Dalian, Liaoning province. Moreover, the results were compared with those obtained from multiple regression model. It
is indicated that the BP neural network based on data pre-process produces better results in trip generation forecasting.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期：2014-06-30 修改稿日期：2015-04-15
基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目（71101109）；北京大学－美国林肯土地政策研究院论文资助项目(DS20140901)；长沙理工大学公路工程教育部重
点实验室开放基金项目（kfj120108）
作者简介：孙健（1977 - )，男，博士，特别研究员，博士生导师，土地利用与城市交通规划．E-mail: danielsun@sjtu.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2015-09-01