[1]王小完,骆正山,王瑞.基于F-MC法海上油气管道点腐蚀深度预测研究[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2017,49(03):443-448.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2017.03.021]
 WANG Xiaowan,LUO Zhengshan,WANG Rui.Study of F-MC method on offshore oil and gas pipelines point corrosion depth forecast[J].J. Xi’an Univ. of Arch. & Tech.(Natural Science Edition),2017,49(03):443-448.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2017.03.021]
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基于F-MC法海上油气管道点腐蚀深度预测研究()
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西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版)[ISSN:1006-7930/CN:61-1295/TU]

卷:
49
期数:
2017年03期
页码:
443-448
栏目:
出版日期:
2017-06-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study of F-MC method on offshore oil and gas pipelines point corrosion depth forecast
文章编号:
1006-7930(2017)03-0443-06
作者:
王小完骆正山王瑞
(西安建筑科技大学管理学院,陕西 西安 710055)
Author(s):
WANG Xiaowan LUO Zhengshan WANG Rui
(School of Management,Xi′an Univ. of Arch. & Tech., Xi′an 710055,China)
关键词:
海上管道Frechet分布F-MC综合模型腐蚀预测
Keywords:
offshore pipeline frechet distribution F-MCcomposite model corrosion prediction
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.15986/j.1006-7930.2017.03.021
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了对海上油气管道的安全状况进行科学评估,应用Frechet 极值分布建立海上油气管道最大腐蚀深度预测模型,结合蒙特卡罗(MC)方法估计预测模型的参数值,预测海上油气管道可能的最大腐蚀深度,并通过马尔科夫链模型对管壁腐蚀的最大概率进行分析预测,实现对海上油气管道腐蚀现状和运行情况的科学评估和预测实证结果表明:该综合模型能够精确预测海上油气管道的最大腐蚀深度和腐蚀状况,从而为合理确定管道的检测、维护、维修周期提供科学的依据.
Abstract:
In order to scientific evaluation corrosion states of offshore oil and gas pipelines, Firstly, established the maximum depth of corrosion pit prediction model by Frechet extreme distribution, Secondly,by using MCMC,values of parameters in the model were estimated. Probable maximum corrosion depths of pipelines were predicted by using the model. Thirdly, by combining with Markov chain model,the maximum probability state of corrosion in pipeline wall was analyzed,realized the scientific evaluationand forecast of corrosion status and operation condition of the buried oil and gas pipelines,and the accuracy of the model was tested. The results show that: the combination model can well forecast the maximum depth of corrosion pit and the corrosion situation of offshore oil and gas pipelines,and provide a scientific basis for maintenance,repair and detection of the offshore pipelines. It has important guiding significance for ensuring the safe operation of oil and gas pipelines.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2016-07-25 修改稿日期:2017-05-26 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目(61271278);陕西省重点学科建设专项资金资助项目(E08001);陕西省教育厅自然专项基金资助项目(16JK1465) 作者简介:王小完(1975-),女,副教授,主要从事管道风险评估理论、建模与方法、企业信息化方面的教学和科研工作. E-mail:luozhengshan@163.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-08-27