[1]李传华 吴 昊.高铁运行影响下道路运输旅客选择概率变化特性研究[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2018,50(05):741-0748.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2018.05.019]
 LI Chuanhua,WU hao.A study of the impact of high-speed railway operation on the selection proba-bility of road transport passengers[J].J. Xi’an Univ. of Arch. & Tech.(Natural Science Edition),2018,50(05):741-0748.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2018.05.019]
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高铁运行影响下道路运输旅客选择概率变化特性研究(/HTML)
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西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版)[ISSN:1006-7930/CN:61-1295/TU]

卷:
50
期数:
2018年05期
页码:
741-0748
栏目:
出版日期:
2018-10-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
A study of the impact of high-speed railway operation on the selection proba-bility of road transport passengers
文章编号:
1006-7930(2018)05-0741-08
作者:
李传华1 吴 昊2
(1. 长安大学 经济与管理学院,西安 710064; 2. 长安大学 汽车学院, 西安 710064)
Author(s):
LI Chuanhua1 WU hao2
(1. School of Economics and Management, Chang’an University, Xi’an, 710064, China;2. School of Automobile, Chang’an University, Xi’an, 710064, China)
关键词:
关键词:道路运输高铁旅客出行链选择行为效用理论
Keywords:
Road transport high-speed rail passenger travel chain choice behavior utility theory
分类号:
U191.1
DOI:
10.15986/j.1006-7930.2018.05.019
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为研究高铁运行对道路运输旅客选择概率变换特性,建立了基于效用理论的道路运输旅客乘车概率计算模型并提出了求解计算方法,模型描述了旅客对于道路运输及高铁衔接道路运输两类出行链的选择概率。通过某市部分出行群体调查数据为例获得模型参数,根据模型绘制了出行总里程、高铁里程占比两个参数变化下乘客选择概率曲线,分析了出行链部分参数变化时与双因素共同变化时旅客选择行为的变化趋势;研究了道路运输票价下降和舒适性提升情况下,对于选择概率影响。结果发现:出行总里程、高铁里程对于出行链选择概率影响明显。随着出行链中高铁占比的增加,旅客选择高铁出行的比例逐渐增加;随着路线长度的增加,选择高铁出行的比例逐渐下降。道路运输票价折扣对于在高铁在出行链中占比较大时对于选择概率的影响并不明显,而舒适性提高对于概率的影响作用较为明显。上述结果反映了道路运输、高铁运输之间的竞争关系,对于高铁运行影响下道路运输组织测量有借鉴作用。
Abstract:
In order to study the impact of high-speed railway operation on the selection probability of road transport passengers, a travel mode selection probability calculation model was created based on utility theory together with its solution. This model described the passengers’ selection probability of two travel chains which include travel on road or travel both on high-speed rail and road. The travel group survey data in a city was calculated to obtain the parameter of the model and a curve which described the number of diverted passengers when the parameter varied. Besides, the trend of passengers’ selection when a part of travel chain parameters changed was analyzed. Furthermore, the impact of diversion characteristics was investigated on the condition that the road transport fare decreased and the comfort was improved. The results showed that with the increase in the proportion of high-speed trains in the travel chain, the proportion of passengers who choose to travel on high-speed railways was also gradually increased. The proportion of high-speed rail trips has declined with the increase in the length of the route. Decline in road transport fares has a significant impact on diversion, while improved comfort does not have a significant effect on diversion. The results above reflect the competition between road transport and high speed rail transport and they can be used as a reference for road transportation organizations under the influence of high-speed railway operation.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2017-10-18 修改稿日期:2018-08-3z0基金项目:国家自然科学基金面上项目(51178054);陕西省交通运输厅科技项目(15-12K)作者简介:李传华(1976-),男,博士研究生,主要研究交通运输工程.E-mail: 1027306183@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-11-22