[1]王秋平,孙皓.基于改进MD模型的城市交通出行方式划分预测方法摘 要：关键词：中图分类号： 文献标志码：A 文章编号：[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2017,49(03):340-345.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2017.03.005]
　WANG Qiuping,SUN Hao.Urban traffic modal splitting based on improved MD forecast model[J].J. Xi’an Univ. of Arch. & Tech.(Natural Science Edition),2017,49(03):340-345.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2017.03.005]
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基于改进MD模型的城市交通出行方式划分预测方法 摘 要： 关键词： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：A 文章编号：()
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西安建筑科技大学学报（自然科学版）[ISSN:1006-7930/CN:61-1295/TU]

卷:
49
期数:
2017年03期
页码:
340-345
栏目:
出版日期:
2017-06-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Urban traffic modal splitting based on improved MD forecast model
文章编号:
1006-7930(2017)03-0340-06
作者:
王秋平; 孙皓
（西安建筑科技大学土木工程学院，陕西 西安 710055）
Author(s):
WANG Qiuping;  SUN Hao
(School of civil engineering ,Xi’an Univ. of Arch. & Tech., Xi’an 710055, China)
关键词:
综合交通运输; 出行牺牲量; MD模型; 出行方式划分; 费用变量
Keywords:
integrated transportation;  travel sacrifice;  MD forecast model;  traffic modal splitting;  expense variable
分类号:
U121
DOI:
10.15986/j.1006-7930.2017.03.005
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
基于MD模型预测原理，结合城市居民出行特征，综合考虑旅客出行时间、出行费用对旅客出行方式选择的影响，对传统MD模型中包含的出行牺牲量计算公式进行了改进，求得了各交通方式的安全性、舒适性、方便性量化值，并得到了基于MD模型的城市交通出行方式划分预测模型.模型可用于预测新增交通方式的诱增交通量与划分结构，分析预测年公交车、地铁费用变量与出行方式划分结构之间的规律.最后结合西安市的调查实例，验证了该预测方法的可行性.研究结论可进一步丰富和完善城市交通出行方式划分预测理论.
Abstract:
Based on the principle of MD forecast model, combined with resident travel characteristics in the city, full consideration is given to the passenger’s travel time、travel cost、safety、comfort and convenience which influence passenger’s traffic mode choice, to improve the calculation formula for travel sacrificial in traditional MD forecast model. This helps to obtain a prediction model of travel mode choice in urban based on MD forecast model. Model can be used to predict the induced traffic of new type transport facility and partition structure,analysis the change law of expense variable with partition structure of travel modal. Finally, combined with the investigation of Xi′an it verified the feasibility of the method. Research conclusions may further enrich and improve the urban traffic modal splitting theory.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2016-06-06 修改稿日期:2017-05-26 基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（51278396） 作者简介:王秋平（1962-），女，博士，教授，主要从事交通规划与管理方面的研究.E-mail: wqp1168@sina.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-08-25