[1]孙振东,张生瑞,吴江玲,等.考虑多通勤方式的路票交易方案弹性分析[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2018,50(03):381-0388.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2018.03.011]
　SUN Zhendong,ZHANG Shengrui,WU Jiangling,et al.Elastic analysis of tradable credits program considering multiple commuting methods[J].J. Xi’an Univ. of Arch. & Tech.(Natural Science Edition),2018,50(03):381-0388.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2018.03.011]
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考虑多通勤方式的路票交易方案弹性分析
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西安建筑科技大学学报（自然科学版）[ISSN:1006-7930/CN:61-1295/TU]

卷:
50
期数:
2018年03期
页码:
381-0388
栏目:
出版日期:
2018-06-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Elastic analysis of tradable credits program considering multiple commuting methods
文章编号:
1006-7930(2018)03-0381-08
作者:
孙振东1; 张生瑞1; 吴江玲1; 李运2; 赵文静3
（1. 长安大学 公路学院，陕西 西安 710064；2. 内蒙古交通设计研究院有限责任公司，内蒙古 呼和浩特 010000；3. 中南大学 交通运输工程学院，湖南 长沙 410000）
Author(s):
SUN Zhendong1;  ZHANG Shengrui1;  WU Jiangling1;  LI Yun 2;  ZHAO Wenjing3
（1. School of highway, Chang′an University, Xi′an 710064, China; 2. Inner Mongolia Traffic Design and Research Institute Co., LTD, Hohhot 010000, China; 3.Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central south university, Changsha 410000, China）
关键词:
可交易电子路票; 通勤出行; 多项logit; 弹性分析
Keywords:
the TCS;  commute travel;  mlogit;  elasticity analysis
分类号:
U121
DOI:
10.15986/j.1006-7930.2018.03.011
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
可交易电子路票方案为解决城市交通拥堵问题提供了新的思路，基于路段的路票扣除方案理论上可以实时反应拥堵情况，并在不同的交通方式之间发挥“惩罚”或“奖励”的不同机制.本文为研究不同出行者对两种机制的反应程度，针对于上海市居民出行数据，建立考虑多种通勤方式的多项logit模型，分析出对每种方式产生显著影响的变量，并针对不同路票价格下的不同通勤方式选择概率的变化量求出了各通勤方式中不同路票价格的弹性值，对比分析了路票交易政策针对不同出行方式时出行者的敏感程度.结论表明，全程驾车出行对票价一直处于富有弹性状态；绕路一项对票价表现为缺乏弹性；停车换乘方式对票价的弹性随着票价上升从缺乏弹性变为富有弹性；全程公交出行方式中，出行需求对票价的弹性随着票价的提升先由缺乏弹性变为富有弹性再到缺乏弹性.
Abstract:
The TCS (tradable credit scheme) provides a new way to solve the problem of urban traffic congestion, the program that deduct the ticket amount based the road could reflection real-time road network congestion theoretically, and play a reward or penalty mechanism in the traffic demand management between different modes of transport. To study the degree of response of the different travelers to the two mechanisms, establish a Mlogit model that consider multiple commute approaches by the data of Shanghai. Analyze variables that have a significant effect on each approach, Calculate the elasticity of the traveler′s change in the fare in the different travel modes. The result shows that travel by car is a flexible demand for the fare; the detour road is inelastic demand for the fare; The demand of commuting by P&R for the fare changes from inflexible to flexible as fare increases; With the increase of the fare, the elasticity of the demand of commuting by bus is a parabola for the fare.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2017-12-05修改稿日期:2018-05-20
基金项目:中国博士后科学基金资助项目 (2015M582593)
第一作者:孙振东(1991-)，男，博士生，主要从事交通管理、交通经济交通运输规划与管理方面的研究．E-mail:442131934@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-09-11