[1]李啸远,田 喆,叶 创,等.考虑气象随机性的太阳能热水系统供能可靠性分析[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2021,53(06):804-810.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2021.06.003 ]
　LI Xiaoyuan,TIAN Zhe,YE Chuang,et al.Reliability analysis of solar water-heating system considering meteorological randomness[J].J. Xi'an Univ. of Arch. & Tech.(Natural Science Edition),2021,53(06):804-810.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2021.06.003 ]
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考虑气象随机性的太阳能热水系统供能可靠性分析()
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西安建筑科技大学学报（自然科学版）[ISSN:1006-7930/CN:61-1295/TU]

卷:
53
期数:
2021年06期
页码:
804-810
栏目:
出版日期:
2021-12-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Reliability analysis of solar water-heating system considering meteorological randomness
文章编号:
1006-7930(2021)06-0804-07
作者:
李啸远; 田 喆; 叶 创; 牛纪德; 吴 霞
(天津大学 环境科学与工程学院, 天津 300350)
Author(s):
LI Xiaoyuan;  TIAN Zhe;  YE Chuang;  NIU Jide;  WU Xia
(School of Enviromental Science and Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300350,China)
关键词:
太阳能热水系统;  优化设计;  不确定性;  可靠性分析
Keywords:
solar water-heating system;  optimal design;  uncertainty;  reliability analysis
分类号:
TU832.1; Tk15
DOI:
10.15986/j.1006-7930.2021.06.003
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
采用太阳能供应生活热水是一种普遍认可的方式,然而太阳能固有的间歇性和不确定性使得系统供能存在较大的不确定性.针对太阳能热水系统的供能可靠性进行探究分析,基于Dymola仿真平台和Genopt优化软件完成系统模型构建与优化设计,采用天津市30年历史气象数据来表征气象条件的随机性,对确定性优化设计方案进行可靠性评估.为提高系统的供能可靠性,针对系统关键设计环节的额外投资方案进行了分析评价.以天津市某居住建筑为案例进行可靠性分析.研究表明:由于确定性设计方法未能考虑气象条件的随机性,因此在80%的场景下系统的供能可靠性不满足预期设计目标; 而适当的增加设计方案中辅助热源的功率和贮水箱的容积可有效弥补确定性设计方法的不足,从而提升系统抵御不确定性的能力.
Abstract:
The use of solar energy to supply domestic hot water is a widely accepted method, but the inherent intermittent and uncertainty of solar energy make the system energy supply uncertain. This paper analyzes the energy supply reliability of the solar water heating system. First, the system model construction and optimization design are completed based on Dymola simulation platform and Genopt optimization software. Then, the randomness of meteorological conditions is represented by the historical meteorological data of Tianjin in 30 years, and the deterministic design plan is evaluated for reliability. Finally, to improve the reliability of the system's energy supply, additional investment options for key design aspects of the system are analyzed and evaluated. The reliability analysis of a residential building in Tianjin shows that the energy supply reliability of the system does not meet the expected design goal in 80% of the scenarios because the deterministic design method fails to consider the randomness of meteorological conditions, while appropriately increasing the power of auxiliary heat source and the volume of water storage tank in the design scheme can effectively make up for the deficiency of deterministic design method, so as to enhance the ability of resisting uncertainty of the system.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2021-07-31修改稿日期:2021-10-30
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51978449)
第一作者:李啸远(1998-),男,硕士生,主要从事太阳能热水系统不确定性设计方面的研究.E-mail:lixiaoyuan@tju.edu.cn 通信作者:牛纪德(1990-),男,博士,助理研究员,主要从事综合能源系统规划设计方面的研究.E-mail:niujide@tju.edu.cn

更新日期/Last Update: 2021-12-20