[1]王桂林,杨 洋,孙 帆,等.边坡失效概率分布特性影响因素研究[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2020,(04):463-469,484.[doi:10.15986-j.1006-7930.2020.04.001]
 WANG Guilin,YANG Yang,SUN Fan,et al.Study on factors affecting the distribution characteristics of slope safety failure probability[J].J. Xi’an Univ. of Arch. & Tech.(Natural Science Edition),2020,(04):463-469,484.[doi:10.15986-j.1006-7930.2020.04.001]
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边坡失效概率分布特性影响因素研究()
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西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版)[ISSN:1006-7930/CN:61-1295/TU]

卷:
期数:
2020年04期
页码:
463-469,484
栏目:
出版日期:
2020-09-25

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on factors affecting the distribution characteristics of slope safety failure probability
文章编号:
1006-7930(2020)04-0463-07
作者:
王桂林12杨 洋 1孙 帆1向林川1
(1.重庆大学 土木工程学院,重庆 400045; 2. 库区环境地质灾害防治国家地方联合工程研究中心,重庆 400045)
Author(s):
WANG Guilin12 YANG Yang1 SUN Fan1 XIANG Linchuan1
(1. School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, China; 2. National Joint Engineering Research Center of Geohazards Prevention in the Reservoir Areas, Chongqing 400045, China)
关键词:
边坡 失效概率 Copula函数 稳定安全系数 变异水平 置信区间
Keywords:
slope failure probability Copula function stability safety factor variation level confidence interval
分类号:
TU43
DOI:
10.15986-j.1006-7930.2020.04.001
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
受诸多因素的影响,边坡失效概率不是定值,实际上是具有一定置信度水平的置信区间分布的.以无限边坡为例,借助Bootstrap法判定抗剪强度参数最优边缘分布函数,采用Copula函数描述抗剪强度参数间互相关性,构建抗剪强度参数的联合分布函数,并从分布特性的角度研究了抗剪强度参数联合分布函数、边坡稳定性设计控制标准及参数变异水平对边坡失效概率的影响.研究表明:针对本算例,五类联合分布函数所得失效概率相近,其中No.16函数所得失效概率相对较大,Gaussian函数所得结果相对较小, Copula加权组合函数所得失效概率精确度相对较高; 随着边坡设计控制标准的提高,则边坡稳定安全系数取值不断增加,边坡失效概率逐渐减小且趋近于0; 边坡失效概率均随δφ的增加而增加,随δc的增加呈“增加 - 减小 - 增加”的趋势,并且边坡失效概率对内摩擦角φ的变异水平较黏聚力c更为敏感.
Abstract:
Affected by many factors, slope failure probability is not a fixed value, but a confidence interval distribution with a certain level of confidence. Taking the infinite slope as aexample, the optimal edge distribution functions of the shear strength parameters are determined by the Bootstrap method, the cross-correlation between the parameters is described by Copula function and the joint distribution function is constructed. The influence of the joint distribution functions, the slope stability safety factor and the variation level of shear strength parameters on slope failure probability are studied from the aspect of distribution characteristics. The research shows that the slope failure probabilities obtained by five joint distribution functions are similar. Specifically, the failure probability obtained by No.16 function is larger relatively, of which Gaussian Copula function is smaller, and Copula weighted combination function is more accurate; With the improvement of the slope design control standard, the value of the slope stability safety factor increases continuously, and the slope failure probability gradually decreases and approaches 0; The slope failure probability increases with the increase of δφ, and there is a tendency of “increasing-decreasing-increasing” with the increase of δc; The slope failure probability is more sensitive to the internal friction angle φ than the variation of cohesion c.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2020-02-08 修改稿日期:2020-07-13
基金项目:国家重点研发计划课题资助项目(2018YFC1505501)
第一作者:王桂林(1970-),男,教授,工学博士,从事岩土工程与地质工程的科研与教学.E-mail: glw@cqu.edu.cn
通讯作者:杨洋(1994-),女,硕士生,主要从事岩土工程领域的研究.E-mail: 2950110427@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-09-25