西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版)

为探究陕西省水环境协调可持续发展状态,基于DPSIR理论(即驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应)构建陕西省水环境评价指标体系,运用熵值法、耦合协调模型、面板模型等测算并分析陕西省2004—2019年10个地级市水环境耦合协调发展时空演化规律及影响因素.结果表明:从时序动态演变来看,陕西省水环境DPSIR系统协调发展程度在2004—2010年为勉强失调,2011转为初级失调,2019年提高到中级协调,虽达到了协调程度但距良好协调仍有很大距离; 从空间分布来看,可将陕西省内各地级市分为三个协调程度层次,第一个层次为延安、榆林、西安和宝鸡,在2019年达到了中级协调或良好协调状态,第二层次为咸阳、渭南、商洛、安康和汉中,最后一个层次为铜川市,发展较慢且在2019年仍处于濒临失调阶段; 从影响因素分析,影响水环境协调的四个显著影响因素分别是人口自然增长率、万元GDP用水量、湿地保护率和地表水水质优良比例.综合以上,本文提出了四个方面的政策建议,以期为陕西省水环境协调发展提供一定借鉴.

In order to explore the coordinated and sustainable development of water environment in Shaanxi Province, a water environment evaluation index system in Shaanxi Province was constructed based on the DPSIR theory(ie, driving force-pressure-state-influence-response). And analyze the temporal and spatial evolution law and influencing factors of water environment coupling and coordinated development in 10 prefecture-level cities in Shaanxi Province from 2004 to 2019. The results show that from the perspective of time series dynamic evolution, the degree of coordinated development of the water environment DPSIR system in Shaanxi Province was barely out of balance from 2004 to 2010, turned into primary imbalance in 2011, and increased to intermediate coordination in 2019. Although it has reached the degree of coordination, it is far from good coordination. There is still a lot of distance. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the local-level cities in Shaanxi Province can be divided into three levels of coordination. The first level is Yan'an, Yulin, Xi'an and Baoji, which reached the intermediate level of coordination or good in 2019. Coordinated state; the second level is Xianyang, Weinan, Shangluo, Ankang and Hanzhong; the last level is Tongchuan City, which has developed slowly and is still on the verge of imbalance in 2019. From the analysis of influencing factors, the four significant influencing factors affecting the coordination of water environment are the natural population growth rate, the water consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP, the wetland protection rate and the ratio of good surface water quality. Based on the above, this paper puts forward policy suggestions in four aspects, in order to provide some reference for the coordinated development of water environment in Shaanxi Province.

引言
1 研究设计
2 模型方法
3 结果分析
4 结语

图1 DPSIR理论框架<br/>Fig.1 DPSIR Theoretical Framework

图1 DPSIR理论框架
Fig.1 DPSIR Theoretical Framework

表1 陕西省水环境DPSIR系统指标体系<br/>Tab.1 Shaanxi Province Water Environment DPSIR System Index System

表1 陕西省水环境DPSIR系统指标体系
Tab.1 Shaanxi Province Water Environment DPSIR System Index System

表2 耦合协调度等级划分标准<br/>Tab.2 Coupling coordination degree classification standard

表2 耦合协调度等级划分标准
Tab.2 Coupling coordination degree classification standard

图2 2004—2019陕西省水环境DPSIR系统耦合度、协调度与综合评价值时序变化<br/>Fig.2 Time series changes of coupling degree, coordination degree and comprehensive evaluation value of water environment DPSIR system in Shaanxi Province from 2004 to 2019

图2 2004—2019陕西省水环境DPSIR系统耦合度、协调度与综合评价值时序变化
Fig.2 Time series changes of coupling degree, coordination degree and comprehensive evaluation value of water environment DPSIR system in Shaanxi Province from 2004 to 2019

表3 2004-2009各市耦合协调程度<br/>Tab.3 2004—2009 Degree of Coupling and Coordination of Cities

表3 2004-2009各市耦合协调程度
Tab.3 2004—2009 Degree of Coupling and Coordination of Cities

图3 陕西省综合时空格局图<br/>Fig.3 The spatial and temporal pattern of the comprehensive development index(left), coupling degree(middle), and coupling coordination degree(right)of Shaanxi Province

图3 陕西省综合时空格局图
Fig.3 The spatial and temporal pattern of the comprehensive development index(left), coupling degree(middle), and coupling coordination degree(right)of Shaanxi Province

图4 2004、2009、2014、2019年耦合度时空格局图<br/>Fig.4 The spatiotemporal pattern of coupling degree in 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019

图4 2004、2009、2014、2019年耦合度时空格局图
Fig.4 The spatiotemporal pattern of coupling degree in 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019

图5 2004、2009、2014、2019年耦合协调度<br/>Fig.5 Coupling coordination degree in 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019

图5 2004、2009、2014、2019年耦合协调度
Fig.5 Coupling coordination degree in 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019

表4 面板模型检验结果<br/>Tab.4 Panel Model Test Results

表4 面板模型检验结果
Tab.4 Panel Model Test Results

表5 面板模型计算结果<br/>Tab.5 Panel Model Calculation Results

表5 面板模型计算结果
Tab.5 Panel Model Calculation Results

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备注

引言

1 研究设计

2 模型方法

3 结果分析

4 结语

期刊信息