西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版)

工程建设项目的系统性、复杂性等特点造成项目在实施过程中面临各个方面的风险.风险具有不确定性,如何对风险进行预判和处置,这是工程承包商面临的难题.本文应用系统动力学思维逻辑对单因素风险处置模式相关变量进行了定义,分析得出处置模式由作业模块、风险事件模块、处置策略模块组成,进而推导出承包商单一风险处置模式.本文站在承包商角度对单因素风险处置过程进行了较深入的分析,形成了较为系统的处置模式,为后续应用系统动力学理论进行项目风险处置多因素研究打下了一定的理论基础.

The systematics and complexity of construction projects cause in all aspects of risk in the implementation process of the project. Risk being uncertain, so how to predict the risk and handle it is a challenge confronted with the engineering contractors. In this paper, application of system dynamics thinking logic to single risk management decision model relevant variables are defined. Analysis decision model by module, operation module, risk events strategy module, and contractor's single risk management decision model are deduced. The single factor risk disposal process is deeply analyzed from the contractor's point of view, and a more systematic disposal mode is formed. This lays a theoretical foundation for the subsequent application of the system dynamics theory for the multi-factor research of project risk disposal.

引言
1 系统动力学
2 单一风险处置决策模式建构流程
3 模式变量和参数设定
4 模式的组成结构与基本假设
5 单一风险处置决策模式
6 结语

图1 单一风险处置决策模式建构流程<br/>Fig.1 Construction process of the single factor risk disposal and decision model

图1 单一风险处置决策模式建构流程
Fig.1 Construction process of the single factor risk disposal and decision model

图2 因果关联图表示法<br/>Fig.2 Representation of causality correlation

图2 因果关联图表示法
Fig.2 Representation of causality correlation

图3 作业模块的因果关联图<br/>Fig.3 The causality correlation of activity module

图3 作业模块的因果关联图
Fig.3 The causality correlation of activity module

图4 因果关联图<br/>Fig.4 Diagram of causality correlation

图4 因果关联图
Fig.4 Diagram of causality correlation

图5 处置策略模块的第一类风险转移策略因果关联图<br/>Fig.5 The causality correlation of the T-1 risk transfer strategy in the disposal strategy module

图5 处置策略模块的第一类风险转移策略因果关联图
Fig.5 The causality correlation of the T-1 risk transfer strategy in the disposal strategy module

图6 处置策略模块的第二类风险转移策略因果关联图<br/>Fig.6 The causality correlation of the T-2 risk transfer strategy in the disposal strategy module

图6 处置策略模块的第二类风险转移策略因果关联图
Fig.6 The causality correlation of the T-2 risk transfer strategy in the disposal strategy module

图7 第三类风险转移策略的边际成本与风险分配状态关系图<br/>Fig.7 Relationship between marginal cost and risk allocation in the T-3 risk transfer strategy

图7 第三类风险转移策略的边际成本与风险分配状态关系图
Fig.7 Relationship between marginal cost and risk allocation in the T-3 risk transfer strategy

图8 处置策略模块的第三类风险转移策略因果关联图<br/>Fig.8 Causality correlation of the T-3 risk transfer strategy in the disposal strategy module

图8 处置策略模块的第三类风险转移策略因果关联图
Fig.8 Causality correlation of the T-3 risk transfer strategy in the disposal strategy module

图9 处置策略模块的第二类风险减轻策略因果关联图<br/>Fig.9 Causality correlation of the T-2 risk mitigation strategy in the disposal strategy module

图9 处置策略模块的第二类风险减轻策略因果关联图
Fig.9 Causality correlation of the T-2 risk mitigation strategy in the disposal strategy module

图10 处置策略模块的风险自留策略因果关联图<br/>Fig.10 Causality correlation of risk retention strategy in the disposal strategy module

图10 处置策略模块的风险自留策略因果关联图
Fig.10 Causality correlation of risk retention strategy in the disposal strategy module

图11 承包商单一风险处置决策模式<br/>Fig.11 Single factor risk disposal process from the contractor

图11 承包商单一风险处置决策模式
Fig.11 Single factor risk disposal process from the contractor

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备注

引言

1 系统动力学

2 单一风险处置决策模式建构流程

3 模式变量和参数设定

4 模式的组成结构与基本假设

5 单一风险处置决策模式

6 结语

期刊信息