西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版)

青藏高原东北缘活动断裂分布密集、构造变形活动强烈、地震频发.建立更符合该地区地震动特征的地震动衰减模型,能够在本地区震害防治和震后应急救援等方面发挥重要作用.首先,基于青藏高原东北缘地震构造特征,有针对性地选择强震数据库,构建考虑断层类型、近断层效应及场地条件等因素的区域性地震动衰减模型,运用随机效应回归法计算出模型系数; 结合国内强震动记录通过残差分析对模型预测结果进行检验,并比较与NGA模型的差异; 最后,运用震动图快速生成系统产出2022年门源Mw6.6地震理论烈度图并与现场调查烈度进行对比.结果表明:本文模型与NGA模型的预测偏差与场地条件和距离关系不大,而主要与震级相关,预测偏差随震级增大而明显增大; 残差分析显示本文模型与青藏高原东北缘地区地震记录更接近; 基于震动图快速生成系统产出的理论烈度图与现场调查结果比较接近,运用地震动衰减模型可有效提高台网稀疏地区强震Shakemap和地震影响场的预测精度和效率.

The northeastern margins of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has a dense distribution of active faults, strong tectonic deformation activities, and frequent earthquakes.The establishment of a ground motion attenuation model that is more in line with the characteristics of the earthquake in the region can play an important role in the prevention and control of earthquake damage and emergency rescue after the earthquake in the region.First, based on the seismotectonic characteristics of the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,a strong earthquake database is selected to construct a regional ground motion attenuation model that considers factors such as fault type, near-fault effect and site conditions, and the random effect regression method is used to calculate the model coefficients.Then,combined with domestic strong motion records, the model prediction results are tested by residual analysis,and the differences between the model and the NGA model are compared.Finally, the theoretical intensity map of Menyuan Mw6.6 earthquake in 2022 is quickly generated by using the vibration map and compared with the field investigation intensity.The results show that the prediction deviations of the paper model and the NGA model are not related to the site conditions and distance, but mainly to the magnitude, and the prediction deviation increases significantly with the increase of magnitude.The model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and efficiency of strong earthquake shakemap and seismic impact field in the sparse area of the station network.

引言
1 研究区概况及数据源
2 地震动衰减模型
3 地震动衰减模型在地震影响场快速评估中的应用
4 结论

图1 青藏高原东北缘活动断裂及历史地震分布<br/>Fig.1 Active faults and historical earthquake distribution in the northeastern margins of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

图1 青藏高原东北缘活动断裂及历史地震分布
Fig.1 Active faults and historical earthquake distribution in the northeastern margins of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

表1 本文所选地震目录<br/>Tab.1 Earthquake catalogue selected in this paper

表1 本文所选地震目录
Tab.1 Earthquake catalogue selected in this paper

图2 震级-距离分布图<br/>Fig.2 Relationship between magnitude and distance

图2 震级-距离分布图
Fig.2 Relationship between magnitude and distance

表2 地震动模型系数<br/>Tab.2 Coefficient of ground motion model

表2 地震动模型系数
Tab.2 Coefficient of ground motion model

图3 不同震级、场地条件下模型对比图<br/>Fig.3 Comparison of models at different magnitudes and site

图3 不同震级、场地条件下模型对比图
Fig.3 Comparison of models at different magnitudes and site

图4 模型匹配级数Ri随距离分布<br/>Fig.4 Model ranks Ri versus distance bins

图4 模型匹配级数Ri随距离分布
Fig.4 Model ranks Ri versus distance bins

图5 门源Mw6.6地震理论烈度图<br/>Fig.5 Theoretical intensity map of the Menyuan Mw6.6 earthquake

图5 门源Mw6.6地震理论烈度图
Fig.5 Theoretical intensity map of the Menyuan Mw6.6 earthquake

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备注

引言

1 研究区概况及数据源

2 地震动衰减模型

3 地震动衰减模型在地震影响场快速评估中的应用

4 结论

期刊信息