[1]祁神军.二手房对商品房市场的影响机理及调控政策研究———以厦门市为实证[J].西安建筑科技大学学报:自然科学版,2011,43(05):665-671.677.[doi:DOI :10.15986/j .1006-7930.2011.05.010]
 QI Shen-jun,Z H AN GY un-bo.Study on influence mechanism of real estate market tacking accountof the second hand housing transaction under macro-control policy[J].J.Xi’an Univ. of Arch. & Tech.:Natural Science Edition,2011,43(05):665-671.677.[doi:DOI :10.15986/j .1006-7930.2011.05.010]
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二手房对商品房市场的影响机理及调控政策研究
———以厦门市为实证
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西安建筑科技大学学报:自然科学版[ISSN:1006-7930/CN:61-1295/TU]

卷:
43
期数:
2011年05期
页码:
665-671.677
栏目:
出版日期:
2011-10-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on influence mechanism of real estate market tacking account
of the second hand housing transaction under macro-control policy
文章编号:
1006-7930(2011)05-0665-08
作者:
祁神军1 2 张云波1
(1 .华侨大学土木工程学院, 福建厦门361021 ;2 .华中科技大学土木工程与力学学院, 湖北武汉430074)
Author(s):
QI Shen-jun1 2 Z H AN GY un-bo1
(1 .Co lleg e of Civil Enginee ring , Huaqiao Unive rsity , Xiamen 361021 , China ;
2 .School of Civ il Enginee ring & Mechanics , Huazho ng Univer sity o f Science & Technolo gy , Wuhan 430074 , China)
关键词:
二手房商品房市场影响机理动力机制动力模型调控政策
Keywords:
second hand house real estate market inf luence mechanism d ynamical mechanism d ynamical model macro-control policy .
分类号:
TU375 .4
DOI:
DOI :10.15986/j .1006-7930.2011.05.010
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
 新房和二手房共同形成了针对不同收入群体的梯度商品房市场, 虽然在短期内二手房的交易会抑制
新房市场;但从长期来看, 二手房的激烈交易转移了部分新房需求的同时, 却又增加了新房的需求, 从而推动
了新房市场的发展.采用系统动力学原理及方法, 深入剖析了二手房交易及其宏观调控政策与商品房市场发
展的互动机理, 构建了二手房对商品房市场影响的动力模型, 以厦门市2000 年至2007 年房地产市场交易数
据为基础, 采用Vensim PLE 软件模拟和预测了厦门市2008 年至2015 年房地产市场发展趋势;并改变二手
房交易的各种宏观调控政策, 模拟其对商品房市场的影响, 提出了计及二手房交易的宏观调控商品房市场的
各种建议和措施.
Abstract:
Fo r different income g roups, new ho use and second hand house comprise the real estate market classified hier archically
.The seco nd hand house transaction can dive rt the demand fr om the new house market , and cur b the new house
demand and price in sho rt term , but it adds the new ho use demand from the seller s o f the second hand ho use in the lo ng
run, which promotes the new ho use ma rket .The interactiv e mechanism among the real estate mar ke t, the second hand
ho use transaction and its policy interve ntio n w as analy zed with Sy stem Dy namics , and the dynamic mechanism and dy nami
model w as set up.The dy namic model runs in Vensim PLE softw are using the da ta from Xiamen.The coefficie nt o f the
interventio n policy of second-hand housing transaction was cho sen as the co ntrol variable fo r simula tion , and the influence
deg ree of differe nt policy sce narios on real estate market w as analyzed.Three ty pes of effective and positive co untermea sure
s w ere propo sed to advice Xiamen g ove rnment to curb the excessive price inc reases and promote the dev elo pment o f relev
ant industries .

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
*收稿日期:2010-09-14   修改稿日期:2011-07-18
基金项目:华侨大学高层次人才引进基金项目(09BS 623);国侨办基金项目(06Q0052)
作者简介:祁神军(1982-), 男,湖北宣恩人, 讲师, 博士, 研究方向:房地产市场发展动力机制
更新日期/Last Update: 2015-11-05