西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版)

随着全球环境的不断变化,台风的发生也有着较大的影响.为了考虑大气环境对台风极值风速的影响,以起点模型、路径模型和强度模型构成台风模型,该模型的三个组成部分是由研究点的相对海平面温度、绝对涡度、250 hPa和850 hPa垂直风切以及600 hPa相对湿度等大气环境所决定.首先,详细阐述起点模型、路径模型和强度模型的理论基础; 然后,以香港为研究点,进行了台风关键参数相关性分析和不同重现期下的台风极值风速预测,并将研究结果与历史数据计算结果进行对比.研究结果发现:本模型的模拟结果与历史观测数据结果有着较好吻合度,表明此模型的可靠度; 模拟结果略大于历史观测数据表明,在全球变暖的大环境下,台风极值风速较以往略有提高.

With the continuous changes in the global environment, the occurrence of typhoons also has a greater impact. In order to consider the influence of atmospheric environment on the extreme wind speed of typhoon, this study constructs a typhoon model consisting of a starting point model, a path model and an intensity model. The three components of the model are determined by atmospheric conditions such as relative sea surface temperature, absolute vorticity, 250 hPa and 850 hPa vertical wind shear, and 600 hPa relative humidity at the study site. Firstly, the theoretical basis of the starting point model, the path model and the intensity model is described in detail; then, taking Hong Kong as the research point, the correlation analysis of key typhoon parameters and the prediction of typhoon extreme wind speed under different return periods are carried out, and the research results are compared with historical data calculation results. The research results show that the simulation results of this model are in good agreement with the historical observation data, indicating the reliability of the model; the simulation results are slightly larger than the historical observation data, indicating that in the context of global warming, the typhoon extreme wind speed is slightly higher than before.

引言
1 考虑大气环境的台风模型
2 台风关键参数计算
3 台风极值风速计算
4 结论

图1 台风关键参数分布直方图<br/>Fig.1 Distribution histogram of key typhoon parameters

图1 台风关键参数分布直方图
Fig.1 Distribution histogram of key typhoon parameters

表1 χ2检验法和K-S检验法检验数值<br/>Tab.1 Chi-square test and K-S test for testing values

表1 χ2检验法和K-S检验法检验数值
Tab.1 Chi-square test and K-S test for testing values

图2 台风风速概率分布对比图<br/>Fig.2 Comparison chart of typhoon wind speed probability distribution

图2 台风风速概率分布对比图
Fig.2 Comparison chart of typhoon wind speed probability distribution

表2 台风不同重现期极值风速(m/s)<br/>Tab.2 Extreme wind speed in different return periods of typhoon(m/s)

表2 台风不同重现期极值风速(m/s)
Tab.2 Extreme wind speed in different return periods of typhoon(m/s)

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备注

引言

1 考虑大气环境的台风模型

2 台风关键参数计算

3 台风极值风速计算

4 结论

期刊信息