[1]黄金,赵淼.基于贝叶斯网络的隧道围岩失稳风险分析[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2019,51(04):545-550.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2019.04.012]
　HUANG Jin,ZHAO Miao.Risk analysis of tunnel surrounding rock based on Bayesian network[J].J. Xi’an Univ. of Arch. & Tech.(Natural Science Edition),2019,51(04):545-550.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2019.04.012]
点击复制

基于贝叶斯网络的隧道围岩失稳风险分析()
分享到：

西安建筑科技大学学报（自然科学版）[ISSN:1006-7930/CN:61-1295/TU]

卷:
51
期数:
2019年04期
页码:
545-550
栏目:
出版日期:
2019-08-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk analysis of tunnel surrounding rock based on Bayesian network
文章编号:
1006-7930(2019)04-0545-06
作者:
黄金1; 赵淼2
(1.智性纤维复合加固南通有限公司,江苏 南通 226000 ;2.北京城建中南土木工程集团有限公司,北京 100000)
Author(s):
HUANG Jin1; ZHAO Miao2
(1. Zhixing FRP Reinforcement Nantong Co.,Ltd,Nantong 226000, China.; 2.Beijing Urban Construction Zhongnan Civil Engineering Group Co.,Ltd.Beijing 100000, China)
关键词:
隧道工程; 风险分析; 有限元; 贝叶斯; 失效概率
Keywords:
tunnel project; risk analysis; finite element model; bayesian; failure probability
分类号:
U451+.2
DOI:
10.15986/j.1006-7930.2019.04.012
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
研究分析隧道开挖施工过程中隧道围岩的失效概率对隧道全过程的安全开挖意义重大.结合连云港主体港区东疏港高速公路隧道工程，通过采用有限元分析软件PLAXIS 3D TUNNEL对实例隧道进行建模，可以得到隧道围岩衬砌轴应力关于隧道各个随机变量的数据变化曲线，并可拟合得到多因素下的应力变化函数，再根据其承载能力极限状态建立相应的功能函数，为隧道风险分析模型的建立提供数据支持.采用贝叶斯工具netica建立隧道围岩风险分析的贝叶斯网络模型，对隧道围岩失效概率进行分析.研究结果表明：当围岩的衬砌厚度越厚时，该隧道围岩的失效概率将会越低，且隧道围岩的失效概率随着岩体粘聚力的增加而减小，随着摩擦角的增大而不断增大且变化幅度越来越大，随着弹性模量的增加而不断减小.得到了相应的隧道围岩失效概率随着各随机变量的变化规律后，可以通过不同的条件选择不同的施工对策来减小隧道开挖施工的风险，对隧道工程的安全施工有一定的参考价值
Abstract:
Studying and analyzing the failure probability of surrounding rock in tunnel excavation is of great significance to the safe excavation of the whole tunnel. Combined with the tunnel project of the East Dredge Highway in Lianyungang main port area, the finite element analysis software PLAXIS 3D TUNNEL is used to model the tunnel case. The data change curve of the tunnel lining axis stress on the random variables of the tunnel can be obtained, and the stress variation function under multiple factors can be obtained, and then the basis of the stress change function can also be obtained. The corresponding limit function is established to provide data support for the establishment of tunnel risk analysis model. Bayesian network netica is used to establish the bayesian network model for risk analysis of tunnel surrounding rock, and the failure probability of surrounding rock of tunnel is analyzed. Results show that when the thickness of the surrounding rock lining is thicker, the failure probability of th e tunnel surrounding rock will be lower, and the failure probability of the tunnel surrounding rock decreases with the increase of the cohesive force of the rock mass, and increases with the increase of the friction angle, and the amplitude becomes more and more, which decreases with the increase of the modulus of elasticity. The failure probability of the corresponding tunnel surrounding rock, with the variation of the random variables, can be selected by different conditions to reduce the risk of tunnel excavation, which is of reference value for the tunnel excavation engineering

参考文献/References:

[1]郭仲伟. 风险分析与决策[M].北京:机械工业出版社,1987.

GUO Zhongwei.Risk analysis and decision-making [M].Beijing: China Machine Press,1987.

[2]赵旭峰, 王春苗. 厦门海底隧道围岩稳定动态反演分析[J]. 工程地质学报, 2007, 15(2):228-232.

ZHAO Xufeng,WANG Chunmiao. Dynamic displacement back-analysis on stability of surrounding rocks along xiamen sub-sea tunnel [J]. Journal of Engineering Geology, 2007, 15(2):228-232.

[3]卫军, 李昊, 杨曼娟,等. 基于ABAQUS平台的四渡河悬索桥隧道锚围岩稳定性分析[C]//全国岩石动力学学术会议. 武汉: 岩石力学与工程学报，2005:4894-4899.

WEI Jun,LI Hao,YANG Manjuan, et al.Stability analysis of rock around tunnel-type anchorage of siduhe suspension bridge based on ABAQUS software. [C]//National Symposium on Rock Dynamics.Wuhan: Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics & Engineering，2005:4894-4899.

[4]CAI M, KAISER P K, TASAKA Y, et al. Determination of residual strength parameters of jointed rock masses using the GSI system[J]. International Journal of Rock Mechanics & Mining Sciences, 2007, 44(2):247-265.

[5]WU X, JIANG Z, ZHANG L, et al. Dynamic risk analysis for adjacent buildings in tunneling environments: a Bayesian network based approach[J]. Stochastic Environmental Research & Risk Assessment, 2015, 29(5):1447-1461.

[6]SOUSA R L, EINSTEIN H H. Risk analysis during tunnel construction using Bayesian Networks: Porto Metro case study[J]. Tunnelling & Underground Space Technology Incorporating Trenchless Technology Research, 2012, 27(1):86-100.

[7]陈帆,谢洪涛.建筑技术创新风险的贝叶斯网络模型分析：以绿色建筑技术创新项目为例[J].计算机工程与应用,2014, 50(18):33-38.

CHEN Fan, XIE Hongtao. Risk analysis of construction technology innovation by Bayesian networks model： acase study of green building innovation project. Computer Engineering and Applications, 2014, 50(18):33-38.

[8]陈秋南. 隧道工程[M]. 北京:机械工业出版社,2007.82-110.

CHEN Qiunan.Tunnel engineering [M]. Beijing: Machinery Industry Press, 2007. 82-110.

[9]张向东, 张树光, 贾宝新. 隧道力学[M].徐州:中国矿业大学出版社,2009. 97-139.

ZHANG Xiangdong,ZHANG Shuguang,JIA Baoxin.Tunnel mechanics [M].Xuzhou：China University of Mining and Technology Press,2009. 97-139.

[10]覃卫民,李祺,任伟中,等.复杂结构形式隧道的围岩位移监测分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(03):549-557.

QIN Weimin, LI Qi, REN Weizhong, et al. Monitoring analysis of surrounding rock displacement of complex tunnel[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics & Engineering, 2010, 29(03):549-557.

[11]陈卫忠, 伍国军, 贾善坡. ABAQUS在隧道及地下工程中的应用[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社, 2010: 21-30,312-334.

CHEN Weizhong,WU Guojun,JIA Shanpo. Application of ABAQUS in tunnel and underground engineering[M]. Beijing:China WaterPower Press,2010: 21-30,312-334.

[12]谢洪涛.基于贝叶斯网络的隧道围岩失稳风险预警方法[J].计算机工程与应用,2015,51(7):238-242.

XIE Hongtao. Bayesian network based method of instability risk early-warning of tunnel surrounding rock [J]. Computer Engineering and Applications, 2015,51(7):238-242.

[13]陈发达, 王彦玉, 吴贤国,等. 基于云贝叶斯网络的泥水盾构隧道开挖面掘进失稳风险[J]. 土木工程与管理学报, 2017(6):73-79.

CHEN Fada,WANG Yanyu,WU Xianguo, et al.Risk of face stability in slurry shield tunneling based on hybird cloud- bn model [J]. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management.2017(6):73-79.

[14]苏永华, 李翔, 赵明华,等. 考虑参数分布特征的隧道围岩稳定失效概率计算[J]. 计算力学学报, 2010, 27(1):120-126.

SU Yonghua,LI Xiang,ZHAO Minghua, et al.Failure probability calculation for surrounding rock stability of tunnel considering random parameter distribution characteristics [J]. Chinese Journal of Computational Mechanics, 2010, 27(1):120-126.

[15]燕喜军. 隧道支护结构的可靠度分析及其工程应用研究[D]. 长沙:中南大学, 2009.

相似文献/References:

[1]宋战平,刘 京,吴焕通,等.长陡斜井钢纤维喷射混凝土单层衬砌试验研究[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2013,45(03):348.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2013.03.008]
　SONG Zhan-ping,LIU Jing,WU Huan-Tong,et al.Experimental research on single-layer tunnel lining of steel fiber shotcrete and the application in motenlin deviated well[J].J. Xi’an Univ. of Arch. & Tech.(Natural Science Edition),2013,45(04):348.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2013.03.008]
[2]宋战平、,杨腾添,张丹锋,等.溶洞对隧道（洞）稳定性影响的数值试验及现场监测分析[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2014,46(04):484.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2014.04.005]
　SONG Zhanping YANG TengtianZHANG DanfengLI Ning.Experiments and field monitoring and analysis about the impact of existing cave on the stability of the tunnel[J].J. Xi’an Univ. of Arch. & Tech.(Natural Science Edition),2014,46(04):484.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2014.04.005]
[3]胡德秀,周孝德,米艳芳.基于风险因子层次分析法的生态环境需水量模糊神经网络模型[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2011,43(02):224.[doi:DOI :10.15986/j .1006-7930.2011.02.003]
　HU De-xiu,Z HOU X iao-de,MI Y an-f ang.FNN model of eco-environmental water demands based on AHP[J].J. Xi’an Univ. of Arch. & Tech.(Natural Science Edition),2011,43(04):224.[doi:DOI :10.15986/j .1006-7930.2011.02.003]
[4]张新柳.基于超前预报信息的隧道围岩分级及工程应用研究[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2016,48(05):648.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2016.05.006]
　ZHANG Xinliu.Study on the classification and application of the tunnel s surrounding rock based on geological information forecast[J].J. Xi’an Univ. of Arch. & Tech.(Natural Science Edition),2016,48(04):648.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2016.05.006]
[5]宋战平,李世豪,张学钢,等.基于修正Peck法的隧道施工全地层变形规律研究[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2018,50(02):190.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2018.02.006]
　SONG ZhanpingLI ShihaoZHANG XuegangWANG JunbaoWANG Tao.Study on strata settlement regular pattern induced by[J].J. Xi’an Univ. of Arch. & Tech.(Natural Science Edition),2018,50(04):190.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2018.02.006]
[6]宋战平,张 强,赵克明,等.基于现场监测及数值分析的隧道双导洞超前施工优化研究[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2018,50(05):654.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2018.05.006]
　SONG Zhanping,ZHANG Qiang,ZHAO Keming,et al.Optimization study of advanced double-drift tunnel construction based on on-site monitoring and numerical analysis[J].J. Xi’an Univ. of Arch. & Tech.(Natural Science Edition),2018,50(04):654.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2018.05.006]
[7]王家滨,牛荻涛.硝酸侵蚀喷射混凝土NO-3扩散研究[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2019,51(01):75.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2019.01.012]
　WANG Jiabin,NIU Ditao.Study on nitrate ion diffusion of lining shotcrete exposed to nitric acid[J].J. Xi’an Univ. of Arch. & Tech.(Natural Science Edition),2019,51(04):75.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2019.01.012]
[8]张 勇,张然然.地下综合管廊全寿命周期风险评估与分析[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2019,51(02):294.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2019.02.021]
　ZHANG Yong ZHANG Ranran.Life-cycle risk assessment and analysis of underground comprehensive utility tunnel[J].J. Xi’an Univ. of Arch. & Tech.(Natural Science Edition),2019,51(04):294.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2019.02.021]
[9]牛泽林,刘朝鹏,郑 蕾,等.大断面公路板岩隧道开挖与支护数值模拟研究[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2020,52(03):376.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2020.03.010]
　NIU ZeLin,LIU Chaopeng,ZHENG Lei,et al.Numerical simulation study on excavation and support of slab tunnel in large section highway[J].J. Xi’an Univ. of Arch. & Tech.(Natural Science Edition),2020,52(04):376.[doi:10.15986/j.1006-7930.2020.03.010]
[10]周 文.下穿既有运营公路大断面浅埋隧道方案优选及监测分析[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2020,52(04):520.[doi:10.15986-j.1006-7930.2020.04.008]
　ZHOU Wen.Scheme optimization and monitoring analysis of large section shallow buried tunnel on existing highway[J].J. Xi’an Univ. of Arch. & Tech.(Natural Science Edition),2020,52(04):520.[doi:10.15986-j.1006-7930.2020.04.008]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-06-27
修改稿日期:2019-06-10
第一作者:黄金(1988-)，男，硕士，工程师，主要研究方向为结构加固与智能监测。E-mail：huangjin0923@yeah.net
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-09-17